Ukrainian intelligence warns Russia is planning "false flag" provocations in Europe

Ukraine's military intelligence service (HUR) says Russia is stepping up a hybrid campaign against the European Union and may stage "false flag" operations to blame on Ukraine. HUR published the assessment on its official Telegram channel on 23 October. It has not made public any evidence, and the claims could not be independently verified.

What HUR says

According to HUR, Russia is intensifying a "hybrid destabilisation strategy" toward the EU. The aim, it says, is to reduce or end outside support for Ukraine by discrediting Ukraine's Defence Forces and by intimidating European governments and societies.

HUR assesses that this may involve provocative acts of sabotage in central and eastern Europe, in particular in the Baltic states. Among the scenarios it attributes to Moscow are "false flag" operations: attacks carried out by one party but made to look like the work of another. In this case, HUR says, Ukraine would be blamed through Russian propaganda channels and through international platforms the Kremlin can use.

Possible targets

HUR lists the following as possible sites of provocations:

• critical infrastructure;
• border areas next to Russia;
• the Kaliningrad enclave, a Russian territory between Poland and Lithuania;
• regions of EU states with a Russian-speaking population and facilities controlled by the Kremlin, including a network of Russian Orthodox Church sites and historic places linked to Russia.

The agency did not name specific locations, dates or perpetrators, and it did not say what information its assessment is based on. The post describes the scenarios as HUR's "assessment" ("may be about"), not as a confirmed plan.

Earlier warning

HUR noted that in early October 2026 it reported an order to Russian special services to step up activity on EU and NATO territory, and that Ukraine had warned its partners about the threats. RealUA has not found a separate earlier article on that HUR report. The source post does not give details of the order.

Wider context

The warning comes as European officials have been speaking publicly about Russian hybrid activity. RealUA reported on 12 October that NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, said Europe should strengthen support for Ukraine in response to Russian hybrid attacks. On 13 October, RealUA reported that Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said the scale of Russian hybrid actions against European states is growing and that NATO would need a "very serious conversation" if people start dying. RealUA also reported on 11 October, citing the Financial Times, that Russia is intensifying attempts to assassinate heads of European defence firms.

Hybrid warfare generally refers to pressure that stays below the threshold of open military conflict, such as sabotage, cyber operations and disinformation. Moscow has denied it carries out such operations against Europe. This HUR statement is one side's intelligence claim in an ongoing war, and no European government has been cited in the source as confirming this specific assessment.