Novak: Russia could lift diesel exports to 3–3.5 million tonnes a month by year-end

Russia could raise its diesel exports to 3–3.5 million tonnes a month by the end of 2026, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said, according to Ukrainian outlet Ekonomichna Pravda, which reported his remarks on 13 October.

"We will see how the situation develops, but Russia has the capacity to increase diesel exports," Novak was quoted as saying. He added that by the end of this year exports could return to the levels seen before the "crisis" and climb to 3–3.5 million tonnes a month. The source does not say which crisis he meant or what the current monthly export level is.

Trump's stated volumes

Novak's comments follow a statement by US President Donald Trump on Friday, which Ekonomichna Pravda says set out how much diesel Russia would supply to the American and global markets:

• 300,000 tonnes immediately;
• a further 500,000 tonnes in November;
• 1 million tonnes in December.

These figures come from Trump's statement as relayed by the outlet. The source does not include any Russian confirmation of those specific volumes, and Novak's remarks as quoted do not refer to them directly.

If Novak's upper figure were reached, the 1 million tonnes Trump cited for December would equal roughly a third of Russia's potential monthly diesel exports. That is an illustrative comparison based on the two sets of numbers, not a calculation provided by either official.

Context

Trump's decision to allow Russian diesel onto the US and world market has already drawn criticism. RealUA reported that a bipartisan group of US senators said the move contradicts a 2022 congressional ban on such imports and that Congress was not consulted. The New York Times reported that efforts to restart Ukraine peace talks had stalled after Trump announced a diesel supply arrangement with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, speaking at the Warsaw Security Forum, proposed that Washington sign a "diesel deal" with Ukraine instead and warned of an agricultural crisis within one to two months.

Novak's statement is a claim by a Russian official about export capacity, not a confirmed forecast, and it could not be independently verified. Ekonomichna Pravda's report does not give details on how the increase would be achieved, which markets would receive the fuel, or how sanctions would apply.