Ukrainian intelligence: Russia's 2026 war spending of $144bn tops 3x education and health

Russia's "national defence" budget line for 2026 stands at 12.121 trillion roubles, about $144.4 billion, according to an analysis published on 14 October by Ukraine's Defence Intelligence Directorate (HUR). HUR says the sum is more than three times what Russia allocates to education ($21 billion) and healthcare ($22.5 billion) combined.

The agency's figures have not been independently verified. HUR is part of Ukraine's military and a party to the war. The dollar conversions, which imply a rate of roughly 84 roubles to the dollar, and the comparisons are HUR's own.

Headline figures

Counting a broader list of expenses that HUR links to the war against Ukraine, spending rises to 14.886 trillion roubles ($177.4 billion), the agency says.

HUR estimates that the classified part of Russia's defence budget is 9.187 trillion roubles, about $109.5 billion. This is the agency's own estimate. The post does not say how it was calculated.

Defence industry support

For the defence-industrial complex, HUR says Moscow set aside a total of 15.929 billion roubles ($189.8 million) across three lines:

• stimulating development of the defence industry: 6.167 billion roubles ($73.5 million)
• military-technical cooperation: 6.310 billion roubles ($75.2 million)
• scientific and production programmes: 3.452 billion roubles ($41.1 million)

Defence enterprises also receive separate support, according to HUR:

• 2.054 billion roubles ($24.5 million) to compensate costs
• 463 million roubles ($5.5 million) to prevent bankruptcies
• 500 million roubles ($6 million) to compensate loan interest
• 1.5 billion roubles ($17.9 million) for compensation payments to workers

A further 1.25 billion roubles ($14.9 million) is earmarked for high-performance computing used to develop weapons. HUR says this work is carried out in data centres, including on supercomputers operated by Yandex and on Sberbank capacity. It argues that this makes the companies' infrastructure involved in the aggression. Neither company is quoted in the post.

Applied defence research gets 26.178 billion roubles (about $312 million).

Drones and Rosgvardia

For the development and production of drones of various types, Russia budgeted 10.233 billion roubles ($121.9 million). HUR says this does not reflect the real market, which it describes as significantly larger once private investment and procurement are included.

HUR also cites 687.6 billion roubles (about $8.19 billion) for drone procurement for Rosgvardia, Russia's National Guard. The agency says these drones are intended for use not only at the front but also inside Russia. It lists protecting critical infrastructure, patrolling cities, surveilling citizens and suppressing potential protests. That is HUR's assessment, not a stated Russian government purpose.

The Rosgvardia figure is far larger than the 10.233 billion roubles shown for drone development and production. HUR does not explain the gap. It may reflect different budget categories, but the post does not say.

Comparisons

HUR says $144.4 billion is comparable to the cost of building the International Space Station, which it puts at about $150 billion. It also says the sum would cover more than 150 modern cancer centres. The post also contains strongly polemical language about the Russian leadership, which is not reproduced here.

The post does not name the specific budget documents or the sources for the education and healthcare figures. It gives no year-on-year comparison for Russian military spending.