Ukraine and NATO develop two AI models to forecast drone attacks, plan artillery fire

Ukraine and NATO have jointly developed two artificial intelligence models for combat tasks, Ukraine's Defence Ministry said on Telegram on 13 October. One is meant to forecast Russian drone attacks, the other to speed up the planning of artillery operations.

The ministry's description of the tools is the only source so far. No independent assessment or performance figures, such as forecast accuracy, have been published.

Model No. 13: forecasting drone use

According to the ministry, "Model No. 13" analyses earlier data, weather conditions and the current situation on the ground. From these it forecasts four things:

• the intensity of enemy drone use;
• the areas likely to be affected;
• the time windows of attacks;
• the types of drones involved.

The ministry says the model has already been checked on real datasets and is ready to be integrated into the Armed Forces' situational-awareness systems. These are the digital tools that give commanders a combined picture of what is happening on the battlefield. The ministry did not say when integration would happen.

Model No. 32: ranking artillery options

"Model No. 32" is designed to help plan artillery operations. The ministry says it takes into account available weapons, ammunition, firing positions, logistics, ballistics and other constraints.

The AI discards options that cannot be carried out, evaluates the feasible ones and ranks them, the ministry said. In effect, it screens and sorts possible plans for human planners. The ministry did not say who makes the final decision.

This tool is at an earlier stage. A prototype has been handed to Ukrainian customers for testing and validation, according to the ministry. It did not name the units or organisations involved.

Who built them

Both solutions were developed by NATO's Allied Command Transformation, the alliance's body for military innovation and future capabilities, together with Ukraine's Armed Forces. The NATO-Ukraine Joint Analysis, Training and Education Centre (JATEC) took part and provided support, the ministry said.

The announcement comes as both sides rely heavily on drones. Ukraine's General Staff regularly reports Russian drone launches in the dozens or hundreds overnight. The ministry did not link the new models to any specific operations.

Details such as the models' data sources, cost, testing results and deployment timeline were not disclosed.